Notes from the Evidence Project | March 26
New data on learning recovery, school absenteeism and enrollment, the student mental health crisis, and more
It would feel disingenuous to continue releasing newsletters and not address the rapid and haphazard dismantling of the US Education Department. The Evidence Project Newsletter’s focus is the academic and social-emotional well-being of students, especially related to the Covid-19 pandemic. While we, the authors of this newsletter, firmly believe these wanton executive actions are a direct threat to student well-being, continued coverage of them is somewhat beyond the scope of this project. However, we hope our readers are keeping themselves informed on federal developments and are working however they can to promote student well-being. If you’re interested in common sense solutions and paths forward that build consensus in the face of these unprecedented federal actions, we encourage you to follow CRPE’s new Phoenix Rising series.
This issue includes:
New and retrospective data on student learning recovery
The latest information on school absenteeism and enrollment
How policymakers are addressing the student mental health crisis
Analysis of teaching conditions and staffing strategies
Critical developments in math research and policy in our Math Corner
Learning Recovery
This month marks five years since schools across the country shuttered in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition to a CRPE retrospective that we highlighted last week, a number of other experts weighed in on the pandemic’s lasting effects. Chad Aldeman reviewed ten predictions he made early in the pandemic and found that, if anything, he underestimated how severely the school closures would harm academic achievement. Notably, none of his early pandemic predictions referenced the social-emotional impacts of school closures; impacts in these areas were simply not part of the conversation in 2020-21 despite proving to be areas of especially pernicious impact. CRPE Director Robin Lake and Founder Paul Hill also put forth their thoughts on if and how school systems leveraged the pandemic as an opportunity to reorient and better serve students—in short, “We blew it.”
The latest data suggest these gloomy reflections are warranted: a new report from Amplify shows that just 56% of early elementary students are on track in reading, a proportion slightly higher than last year’s (but still lower than pre-pandemic). NWEA researchers found that student math achievement is slowly recovering but declines continue in ELA.
If there are glimmers of hope when it comes to academic recovery, look to the American South. Southern states recovered better than other states on NAEP after adjusting for student demographics. Some education leaders credit these states’ relatively top-down education systems: they tended to enact and enforce meaningful instructional policy instead of disbursing funding for districts to use as they see fit.
Research on the best ways to improve schools and foster learning recovery continues. Some suggest incorporating student GPA into measures of school quality. Others offer “pairing” schools in the same district with very different demographic profiles to promote desegregation with minimal impact on parent commutes.
Stanford researchers analyzed tutoring session recordings to better understand how teacher attention varies by student characteristics like race and achievement, while SUNY Albany researchers found positive impacts of HVAC upgrades on achievement and attendance. Virginia has created a system of “growth assessment reports,” which inform parents about student academic standing more accurately than a typical report card, addressing an important communication gap that many, including the National Parents Union, have identified in recent years. Expanded learning opportunities, including tutoring and summer school, continue to be popular and effective strategies for promoting academic recovery.
Further Reading:
A pair of new reports offer deep dives into learning recovery and educational well-being in Ohio and Washington, DC.
BYU, the University of Houston, and UC San Diego have the highest economic returns to education among institutions participating in the NCAA March Madness tournament.
Absenteeism and Enrollment
An analysis of NAEP achievement and pre-test survey data found that students who reported fewer absences had higher scores on the test. A separate analysis found that chronic absenteeism levels vary widely by grade level within states. Attendance advocacy organizations SchoolHouse Connection and Attendance Works compiled case studies and lists of best practices (e.g., breaking down silos, engaging community-based organizations, etc.) for promoting attendance among students experiencing homelessness.
K-12 enrollment has been declining since before the pandemic, but the population of K-12 students identified as eligible for special education has increased, amplifying the effects of funding declines associated with flagging enrollment.
A new report paradoxically suggests that declining district enrollment often increases per-pupil funding, concluding that declines in district enrollment are not “bad” for students left behind in the district. Therefore, a key argument against education choice programs is flawed. However, the report does not discuss district fixed costs (e.g., maintenance of facilities and other costs that are sensitive to overall funding declines, not per-pupil declines) and recent qualitative changes to student bodies (e.g., increased proportions of relatively expensive-to-educate special education students), which casts some doubt on the substance of the report’s conclusions.
Further Reading:
At the postsecondary level, transfers from two-year to four-year institutions increased in 2024 compared to 2023, but remain below pre-pandemic levels.
Mental Health
Supporting students’ mental health, particularly by restricting cell phone use, emerged as a major theme in governors’ 2025 State of the State addresses. Recent data from a recent Pew poll of 13- to 17-year-olds suggest this focus is a good one: 68% of students report that anxiety and depression are common among their peers and are especially common among girls. Despite mounting evidence of the connection between poor mental health and screen time, survey evidence suggests that almost six in ten US children have their own tablet by age four and that about a quarter have their own cell phone by age eight. A UK survey study found that students’ self-reported mental health in schools with cell phone restrictions was no better than in schools without.
Further Reading:
The Trevor Project broke down analysis of its 2024 survey by state; LGBTQ+ students in the South and Midwest generally report lower community acceptance and higher suicidality than LGBTQ+ students in the West and Northeast.
Teaching Conditions and Staffing
A new analysis finds that Illinois teachers report relatively stable teaching conditions from pre-pandemic through 2021, with conditions worsening substantially in 2022 and failing to rebound in 2023, the last year in the study. These conditions may have rebounded more recently, though. New EdWeek teacher survey data show that, unlike last year, teachers view their jobs more positively than negatively in 2025, albeit with wide variation between states.
Further Reading:
A policy brief from Best NC offers policy recommendations based on a deep dive into North Carolina’s teacher apprenticeships.
A report from the National Council on Teacher Quality breaks down teacher hiring and retention policy in areas with particularly diverse teaching forces like California, Texas, and Washington, DC.
Math Corner
Alabama was the only state with significantly higher NAEP math scores in 2024 compared to pre-pandemic. This NPR report highlights one Alabama district’s “math makeover” early in the pandemic, which included an emphasis on concrete, engaging math instruction and a new district-level math lead position. Additionally, Excel in Ed isolated a set of policy lessons from states that fared particularly well on NAEP (in math or ELA), including school accountability systems, improvements to state assessment systems, and improved training for math educators.
Thanks for reading! As always, if you have feedback or want to alert us to new research, please drop us a comment below.